New research by the International Data Corporation (IDC) shows that although AI PCs are selling well and will likely continue to, it’s not the onboard generative AI that’s driving sales — it’s just the usual refresh cycle.
Companies like Microsoft are aggressively pushing the advantages of generative AI for the average consumer’s workflow, but the IDC thinks customers aren’t responding to the AI features specifically. People need new PCs on a regular basis — which we call a refresh cycle — and since so many of the laptops launching this year are AI PCs, the consumers who need upgrades are naturally just buying what’s available.
As the IDC put it: “While AI has been a buzzword of late, it has yet to be a purchase driver among PC buyers.” This doesn’t mean the IDC is denying the future value of AI overall, however. It’s just that many businesses are struggling to see the immediate use case and consumers don’t really believe the AI on their PC and the Neural Processing Unit (NPU) powering it are relevant to them.
The interesting part is that, arguably, none of that really matters. AI PCs are some of the most powerful and future-proof PCs on the market right now, so they’re an appealing option even for people who don’t have any interest in artificial intelligence. The IDC predicts that the near-term outlook for AI PCs will be modest, but in the long run, more and more PCs will come with an NPU. Eventually, producing processors without one will just become impractical.
The reason for this is fairly simple: AI PCs might not be what people want to buy right now, but it is what companies want to sell. So when people need a new top-of-the-line laptop that will last for a good number of years, AI PCs will be some of the best options out there.
Another interesting point in the report is that the end of support for Windows 10 next year is also expected to drive a refresh cycle among commercial customers, and some businesses will use the opportunity to switch over to Mac. This gives Apple an opportunity to grow its share from 9.1% now to 10.2% in 2026, according to the report.
Tablets might also enjoy a temporary surge in growth due to the upgraded chips, larger screens, and better connectivity of recent models, such as the M4 iPad Pro. But the IDC believes the long-term outlook for the tablet market is flat since powerful smartphones will continue to catch up to tablets, and PCs will continue to have the best performance out of the bunch.