With the Federal Reserve expected to make its first interest rate cut in four years Wednesday, it is time to take a look at how stocks performed at the start of prior easing cycles. Expectations are running high for the market’s already-strong performance this year to continue after the Fed slashes rates. The S & P 500 touched a record high on Tuesday , bringing its year-to-date gain to more than 18%. But how it will perform from here depends largely on the economy, historical data shows. In total, across all cycles, the S & P 500’s performance in the aftermath of the first cut was largely positive but with some big misses when the economy turned down. Overall, the broader index was higher 70% of the time three and six months out, and 80% of the time one year later, according to Canaccord Genuity, which reviewed the last 10 easing cycles going back to 1970. The S & P 500 averaged a 5.5% gain in the first three months after an initial cut, 10.6% six months later and 11.3% one year out. But exclude the times when a recession followed and compute only using the soft-landing scenarios — which is the consensus this time — and the performance gets even better. A recessionary scenario was defined by Canaccord as one in which the economy was already in a downturn or entered one within 12 months of the first cut. In the years when the S & P 500 experienced no recession during or soon after the first reduction — such as in 1984, 1989, 1995 and 1998 — the benchmark was higher 100% of the time three, six and 12 months later. On average, the broader index jumped 10.2% three months later, 14.7% six months out and 18.6% one year afterward. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, ytd Other investment banks have noted this discrepancy, with Bank of America Securities also highlighting the pattern in a recent note. “An easing cycle itself isn’t necessarily positive. In fact, [the S & P 500] posted weaker returns after first rate cuts on average, but with distinct divergence based on the economy,” the firm’s Ohsung Kwon wrote Monday. The S & P 500 “rose only 20% of the time in 100 trading days after first cuts when there was a recession within six months, but 100% of the time when there was no recession (+8% on avg.),” she said. By sector, Canaccord Genuity noted the three sectors averaging the best returns one year later were communication services, information technology and health care. The worst-performing sectors 12 months after a rate cut were materials, utilities and consumer discretionary. — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.
