The Breaker Times

Almost three years into a largely dormant IPO cycle, venture capitalists are in a tough spot.

The private market is dotted with richly valued artificial intelligence startups, including some that are described as generational companies. But venture firms in need of exits aren’t going to get relief from AI anytime soon.

That’s because, unlike prior tech booms, VCs aren’t at the center of this one. Rather, the biggest companies in the industry — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia — have been pouring in billions of dollars to fuel the growth of capital-intensive companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Scale AI and CoreWeave.

With some of the most well-capitalized companies on the planet flinging open their wallets to fund the generative AI craze, the normal pressures to go public don’t apply. And even if they did, this batch of startups is nowhere near showing off the profitability metrics that public investors need to see before taking the plunge.

Tech giants have more than money. They’re also throwing in tangible benefits like cloud credits and business partnerships, packaging the types of incentives that VCs can’t match.

“The AI startups we talk to are having no problems fundraising at robust valuations,” Melissa Incera, an analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told CNBC. “Many are still reporting having too much unsolicited investor interest at the moment.”

Add it all up and venture investors are maneuvering through a deep market distortion with no clear end in sight. U.S. VC exit value this year is on track to reach $98 billion, down 86% from 2021, according to an Aug. 29 report from PitchBook, while venture-backed IPOs are expected to be at their lowest since 2016. Traditional VCs are actively trying to play in AI, but they’re mostly investing higher up the so-called stack, putting money into nascent startups building applications that require far less capital than the infrastructure businesses powering generative AI.

So far in 2024, investors have pumped $26.8 billion into 498 generative AI deals, including from strategic investors, according to PitchBook. That continues a trend from 2023, when generative AI companies raised $25.9 billion for the full year, up more than 200% from 2022.

According to Forge Global, which tracks private market transactions, AI as a percentage of total fundraising jumped from 12% in 2023 to 27% so far this year. The average round for AI companies is 140% bigger this year compared to last, the data shows, while for non-AI companies the increase is only 10%.

Chip Hazard, co-founder of early-stage firm Flybridge Capital Partners, says investing dollars are shifting “up the stack” and that “enduring companies will be built at the application layer.”

That’s all going to take time to develop. In the meantime, startup investors continue to suffer from the fallout of the market turn that began in early 2022, when soaring inflation led the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates, pushing investors out of risky assets and into more conservative investments that finally offered yield.

Tech stocks have since bounced back, driven by Nvidia, whose chips are used in training most of the AI models, and other mega-cap stocks like Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. The Nasdaq hit a record in July before selling off a bit of late. But IPOs and pricey acquisitions have been few and far between, leaving venture firms with minimal returns for their limited partners.

“Managers are having a difficult time raising additional funds without delivering LP returns, especially because more liquid, lower-risk investments now have attractive yields thanks to high interest rates,” PitchBook wrote in its August report.

The one pure AI company that appears close to going public is Cerebras, a chipmaker founded in 2016 that’s backed by some traditional VCs including Benchmark and Foundation Capital. As a semiconductor company, Cerebras never reached the lofty valuations of the AI model developers and other infrastructure players, topping out at $4 billion in 2021, prior to the market’s downward tilt.

Cerebras said in late July that it had confidentially filed its IPO paperwork with the SEC. The company still hasn’t filed its public prospectus. A Cerebras spokesperson declined to comment.

When it comes to the foundational model companies, the astronomical valuations they quickly commanded put them in a very “different league,” outside of the realm of VCs, said Jeremiah Owyang, a partner at Blitzscaling Ventures.

It’s “very challenging for VCs to be promising any exits right now, given the market conditions,” Owyang said, adding that early-stage investors may not see returns for seven to 12 years on their newer bets. That’s for their companies that ultimately succeed.

Firms like Menlo Ventures and Inovia Capital are taking another route in AI.

In January, Menlo disclosed that it was raising a so-called special purpose vehicle (SPV) — called Menlo Inflection AI Partners — as part of a $750 million funding round in Anthropic in a deal that valued the company at more than $18 billion. Since Anthropic’s launch in 2021, Amazon has been the company’s principal backer as it tries to keep pace with Microsoft, which has poured billions of dollars into OpenAI and is reportedly part of an upcoming funding round that will value the ChatGPT creator at over $100 billion.

Menlo had previously invested in Anthropic in 2023 at a valuation of about $4.1 billion. To put in more money at a much higher price, Menlo had to go outside of its main $1.35 billion fund that closed last year. In raising an SPV, a venture firm typically asks for LPs to put money into a separate fund dedicated to a specific investment, rather than a portfolio of companies. Menlo filed to $500 million for the SPV.

In July, rival startup Cohere, which focuses on generative AI for enterprises, announced a $500 million funding round from investors including AMD, Salesforce, Oracle and Nvidia that valued the company at $5.5 billion, more than doubling its valuation from last year.

Cohere confirmed to CNBC that part of the financing, as well as some of its previous fundraising, came through an SPV. Inovia, based in Montreal, organized the latest SPV, and Shopify CEO Tobias Lutke was one of the participants.

Representatives from Menlo and Inovia didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Some investment banks have also put together SPVs to allow multiple investors to pool capital into a hot company. JPMorgan Chase told CNBC that clients “have been able to access several leading AI investments” through the bank’s Morgan Private Venture unit.

Still, for investors to get a return there has to be an IPO at some point, as the regulatory environment makes it virtually impossible for big tech companies to orchestrate significant acquisitions. And companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia can be plenty patient with their investments — they have a combined $280 billion in cash and marketable securities on their balance sheets.

The other potential path for liquidity is the secondary market, which involves selling shares to another investor.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which reportedly valued itself at over $200 billion in a recent employee tender offer, has enabled investor shares through secondary transactions. That may be what’s eventually in store for some investors in xAI, Musk’s 18-month-old AI startup, which is already valued at $24 billion after raising a $6 billion round in May.

But SpaceX is an outlier. For the most part, secondary transactions are viewed as a way for founders and early investors to cash out a portion of their stock in a high-valued company, not a way for VCs to generate returns. For that they need IPOs.

Michael Harris, global head of capital markets at the New York Stock Exchange, told CNBC recently that NYSE is in dialogue with “a number of AI-focused companies” and said that, “as the industry evolves we’d expect that pipeline to continue to build.”

A select few AI companies have hit the public market this year. Astera Labs, which sells data center connectivity to cloud and AI infrastructure companies, debuted on the Nasdaq in March. The company is valued at about $6.5 billion, down from $9.5 billion after its first day of trading.

Tempus AI, a health-care diagnostics company backed by Google, went public in June. The stock is up around 50% from its debut, valuing the company at $8.6 billion.

The IPO floodgates never opened, though, and high-profile AI companies aren’t even talking about going public.

“Unless there is a dramatic shift in market sentiment, I would be hard-pressed to see why these AI startups would put themselves in the public spotlight when they can keep growing privately at such favorable terms,” said S&P’s Incera. Going public “would only amp up pressure to show returns or reduce spending, which for a lot of them is not a feasible ask at this point in the maturity curve,” she said.

Most venture investors are bullish on the potential for generative AI to eventually create big returns at the application layer. It’s happened in every other notable tech cycle. Amazon, Google and Facebook were all web applications built on top of internet infrastructure. Uber, Airbnb and Snap were a few of the many valuable apps built on top of smartphone platforms.

John-David Lovelock, an analyst at Gartner and a 35-year veteran of the IT industry, sees a big opportunity for generative AI in the enterprise. Yet, in 2024, only 1% of the trillion dollars spent on software will be from businesses spending on generative AI products, he said.

“There is money being spent on certain GenAI tools and the few applications that exist,” Lovelock said. “However, broad-scale rollout of GenAI within the broad enterprise software catalogue of products has not yet occurred.” 

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