Over the last 11 months, the S & P 500 ‘s advance has been compared to various bull markets of the past: 2021, 2019, 2017, 2009, 1995-1999, etc. One year that hasn’t come up is 2022. Why would it? That was a harsh bear market, characterized by lower lows, raging inflation and historic rate hikes. That’s the complete opposite of now: the S & P 500 has been making higher highs, inflation has materially dropped from its peak and we’re about to get our first rate cut. However, under the surface, something has been happening that we haven’t seen in two years: The last 24 days With Tuesday’s big decline, the S & P 500 logged 12 absolute 1% moves in the last 24 trading days, starting on July 1 (8 up, 4 down). That’s 50% of the time, which is a lot. For some context, in 2022, the S & P 500 had 128 1% plus or minus moves (63 up, 65 down) in 252 trading sessions. That’s 51% of the time. Indeed, we’re comparing 24 days to 252 (basically one month to 12 months), so the sample size isn’t expansive by any means. However, it shows us how different the trading landscape has become over the last few weeks. If nothing else, it’s a good reminder of what an elongated period of elevated two-way volatility could look like should things continue like this. So, what comes next? Let’s look at the Cboe Volatility Index , the index that everyone thinks of when we hear the term volatility. The ‘VIX’ spiked 30% on Tuesday, which was just the second move of at least +30% since 11/26/21. The other session, of course, happened last month: August 5th (+65%). Should volatility continue to rise the rest of this holiday-shortened week, the VIX could log another +40% week. The last time that the VIX rose at least +40% during a calendar week happened during the week ending August 2, 2024. Back then we provided a study to CappThesis clients, which showed how the week following a 40% move tended to be a lot calmer. As we know, after the VIX exploded in the early minutes of trading of August 5th, it sold off just as hard and ultimately fell 13% week-over-week. However, when the VIX exploded like that in the past, there was a tendency for additional volatility down the road. Obviously, this happened Tuesday, with the question now being how much more can we expect in the typically volatile fall months that we’ve just entered. With the market entering a historically volatile period, with tech getting hit hard, the first rate cut about to happen and the presidential election a few weeks after that, the odds are high that we’ll see additional volatility from here. The Good News The silver lining is that the S & P 500 has built a sizable cushion since breaking out from the large bullish pattern in January. This has allowed it to endure two bouts of enhanced volatility already in 2024 – from March through April and then again July through early August. As we just discussed, the odds suggest that the S & P 500 will need to absorb more punches along the way. If it can without enduring too much damage, the index could then be ready to take advantage of the bullish seasonality that historically appears in the fourth quarter – even during election years. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
