As November’s Election Day draws nearer, so does bitcoin’s eventual breakout from this year’s narrow trading range, according to Bernstein. The flagship cryptocurrency has been stuck between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year — after reaching its all-time high in March — and is likely to remain in limbo until the U.S. determines its next president on Nov. 5. The outcome of the presidential election — whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris were to win — could result in a sizable impact on bitcoin prices, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said. “We expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide,” he said in a note Monday. “We expect bitcoin to claim back new highs, in case of a Trump win and by Q4, we expect bitcoin to reach close to $80,000-$90,000 range. However, if Harris wins, we expect bitcoin to break the current floor around $50,000 and test the $30,000-$40,000 range, which it was when the bitcoin ETF momentum started in Q4’2023.” BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin year-to-date Standard Chartered has forecast a bitcoin rally to $150,000 if Trump wins. Trump has made big overtures to the crypto industry over the summer. He has positioned himself as the pro-crypto candidate , appearing as a keynote speaker at this year’s Bitcoin Conference in Nashville and saying he would remove U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler if elected. Harris has not shared a public view on crypto. Many crypto industry participants were disappointed when her campaign recently shared her policy positions with no mention of bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. “A crypto-friendly election outcome and positive regulatory environment is not priced in,” Chhugani said. “The crypto market today is a story of survival in one of the toughest macro and regulatory environments. And the fact that bitcoin today is up 112% [ over the past 12 months] is a testament to the fundamental resiliency of decentralized digital assets and recent success of ETFs.” “A positive regulatory environment would take away the policy risk for financial institutions and banks to participate, thus removing the handicap for digital assets to compete with traditional assets for institutional flows,” he added. “After last 3 years of regulatory purge, a positive crypto regulatory policy, can spur innovation once again and bring the users back to financial products on the blockchain.” Democratic lawmakers have been seen as less friendly toward cryptocurrency — due largely to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s openly anti-crypto stance and Gensler’s past legal battles with the crypto community — than Republicans. That is changing quickly , however. TD Cowen recently pointed out that if Harris wins the election, her administration could be less hostile toward crypto than President Joe Biden’s has been, although the comparison to a potential second Trump presidency is more challenging.
