Ferragudo, Portugal.
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A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
A growing number of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the country in the run-up to Tuesday’s election, with many fearing political and social unrest regardless of who wins, according to immigration attorneys.
Attorneys and advisors to family offices and high-net-worth families said they’re seeing record demand from clients looking for second passports or long-term residencies abroad. While talk of moving overseas after an election is common, wealth advisors said this time many of the wealthy are already taking action.
“We’ve never seen demand like we see now,” said Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, which advises the wealthy on international migration.
Volek said that for the first time, wealthy Americans are far and away the company’s largest client base, accounting for 20% of its business, or more than any other nationality. He said the number of Americans making plans to move abroad is up at least 30% over last year.
David Lesperance, managing partner of Lesperance and Associates, the international tax and immigration firm, said the number of Americans hiring him for possible moves overseas has roughly tripled over last year.
A survey by Arton Capital, which advises the wealthy on immigration programs, found that 53% of American millionaires say they’re more likely to leave the U.S. after the election, no matter who wins. Younger millionaires were the most likely to leave, with 64% of millionaires between 18 and 29 saying they were “very interested” in seeking so-called golden visas through a residency-by-investment program overseas.
Granted, the interest in second passports or residencies has been rising steadily among the American rich since Covid-19. Whether it’s retiring to a warmer, cheaper country or being closer to family abroad, the wealthy have plenty of nonpolitical reasons to want to venture overseas.
The ultra-wealthy also increasingly see citizenship in one country as a concentrated personal and financial risk. Just as they diversify their investments, they’re now creating “passport portfolios” to hedge their country risk. Others want a non-U.S. passport in case they’re traveling to dangerous countries or regions hostile to the U.S.
Yet the elections and the political climate have accelerated and added to the push by wealthy Americans to consider a Plan B abroad. Lesperance said that for more than three decades, his American clients were mainly interested in moving overseas for tax reasons. Now, it’s politics and fear of violence, with next week’s election turbocharging those fears.
“For some of them, the primary thing is ‘I don’t want to live in a MAGA America,'” Lesperance said. Others are worried about violence if Donald Trump loses, or Vice President Kamala Harris’ plan to tax unrealized capital gains for those worth more than $100 million. While tax analysts say the unrealized gains plan has little chance of passing Congress, even with a Democratic majority, Lesperance said it’s still a risk.
“Even if there is only a 3% chance that it happens, you still want to take out insurance,” he said.
Attorneys say the wealthy also cite mass school shootings, the potential for political violence, antisemitism, Islamophobia and the government’s soaring debts as reasons to leave.
When it comes to destinations, Americans are looking mainly to Europe. According to Henley, the top countries for Americans looking for residency or second citizenships include Portugal, Malta, Greece, Spain and Antigua. Italy has also become popular for Americans.
“The love affair between Americans and Europe has been going on for very long time,” said Armand Arton, of Arton Capital. “It comes with a price, and they are totally fine investing couple hundred thousand dollars or a half million into a property or a fund.”
The rules and costs, however, are changing fast. While mass immigration has become a hot-button political issue across the world, some politicians in Europe have started to push back against golden visas that give the wealthy citizenship or residency purely based on investments.
Portugal, for instance, faced a backlash after a flood of foreigners poured in the Algarve and bought beach properties as part of the golden visa program. With property prices soaring by 15%, the government changed the rules, increasing minimum investment thresholds and removing residential property as an investment category.
Italy this summer doubled its flat tax on the overseas incomes of wealthy foreigners who transfer their tax residency to Italy, to 200,000 euros ($217,000). The change followed a wave of wealthy new migrants who came for the program and drove up Milan property prices.
For now, Malta remains the go-to second passport for the American rich. While expensive, at about $1 million to $1.2 million all-in, Malta’s investment citizenship program offers citizenship and unrestricted travel and residency in Malta and by extension the European Union, according to immigration attorneys. The EU has been challenging the Malta program in court, but most immigration attorneys expect the country to prevail.
The Caribbean is increasingly popular for Americans who simply want a second passport. Buying an approved piece of real estate in Antigua and Barbuda for more than $300,000 puts you on a path for citizenship, which allows freedom to travel to Hong Kong, Russia, Singapore, the U.K. and Europe, among other countries. St. Lucia is also increasingly popular, attorneys say.
Americans with ancestry in Ireland, Italy and dozens of other countries can apply for so-called lineage citizenship, which is typically far cheaper than an investment visa. Some countries, like Portugal, also offer retirement visas, which allow entry and a path to citizenship.
Don’t expect to get any citizenship or residencies right away. With attorneys and countries inundated with so many applications, and so many different background checks and approvals required, the process can take months or even a year or more. And that waiting list could grow longer depending on the election results.
“It’s getting crowded,” Lesperance said. “And I’m sure I’m going to get a bunch more on Nov. 6 or 7.”